Increase in tornadoes

After a rather quiet start to storm season, things have really ramped up in the last week through the central US. While listening to the initial reports from Moore, OK, it didn't sound like it would be as bad as May 3, 1999. While the wind speeds may not have been as strong as 1999, the number of fatalities have already surpassed the number from May 3.

Tornado track comparison

It is surprising to me to see how similar the tracks were from the big tornado 14 years ago to what happened this time around. I don't know what it is and we will probably never know, why some geographic locations are natural magnets for tornadoes. The same could be said about Clearwater, Haysville, and Andover. We saw a similar situation with the April 14, 2012 tornado and how it compared to the big Andover tornado in 1991.

We get asked time and time again about the confluence of two rivers and how that will save the town. I never want anyone to believe that is true, because it only takes one storm to prove that theory wrong, and it nearly happened Sunday. The storm took a right turn over Mid-Continent Airport and the circulation essentially went right over the city. If the tornado would've stayed on the ground, we would've had widespread damage right across the city and been in a similar situation to what Moore, OK is dealing with now.

My final thoughts moving toward the end of May and into early June. I think we are at the beginning of another active cycle of weather. Early May was a bit chilly, but fairly quiet around the central US. There will be more storm chances heading through the holiday weekend, so campers beware. We could also be looking at a more severe weather chances in our last week of May (sometime around May 30th) Tornado season may have started slow (most likely because of the slow departure of winter), but now that we've warmed up, our severe season could go a little longer than usual. The best thing, especially for this time of year, is to stay informed and know what's in the forecast.

Frost Free Planting

We've definitely had some weird weather going on in Kansas this week. From 70 degree temperatures in the morning to 20s by nightfall, we have basically experienced both ends of the temperature scale this week.

Most of us are ready for spring to be here for good and to get out and start some planting. We are just about to the date where we would expect frost-free conditions around the state. The attached map shows when locations around Kansas typically have their last spring frost. Although we may have another cool down next week, it won't be anything like the cold air we've dealt with this week.

Some have wondered how we could get thunderstorms when the temperatures were so cold. The kind of thunderstorms we had on Tuesday were called "elevated" thunderstorms. They are "elevated" above the cold layer of air. In these types of situations, elevated storms are normally hail producers, and sometimes significant hail producers. Storms that produce tornadoes need to have a connection to the atmosphere near the ground where the temperatures are warm. With such cold temperatures around the area Tuesday, it would've been a difficult task to get a tornado because cold air doesn't rise, and you need that in order for a tornado to form.

Understanding freezing rain. Storms on Tuesday developed in the warm air above the ground, and produced heavy rainfall that ended up freezing on surfaces near the ground.

Dealing with Drought

It is the start of our third year in drought and there is a great deal of question surrounding how much longer it will go. Drought is nothing new for our area, and we've certainly had some very dry periods looking back through the record books.

State climatologist Mary Knapp shared with me one of the most significant droughts that Kansas dealt with was back in the 50s, and it finally ended in 1956. Some areas had a cumulative deficit of 60 inches. Can you image what that would've been like? Here are the rainfall deficits for 2 years, and although the numbers are quite amazing, we still have a long way to go before we would threaten those levels.

One thing that I hadn't thought about that Knapp pointed out a couple of different times when we talked, was the demand on our water supply. We just expect the water to be there, and when we go through dry periods (like the one we are in now) and the water levels drop, we need to be using good judgement on our water usage.

Today, look how many residential lawns have irrigation systems and the demand placed on the water supply from industrial use. So much has changed since we dealt with widespread drought back in the 1950s and 1930s. Conservation of water will be extremely important moving forward into the spring and summer months. I can't imagine another 6 months going by without some kind of water restriction placed on much of the state. Although unlikely to last another 6-8 years, imagine another 2-4 years with the drought and how much of Kansas will change. Water levels are already very low, and if we don't get smart with our consumption, we will likely pay a hefty price.

Looking ahead to spring, our pattern looks like it is on a 40-50 day active cycle. So when the active part of the pattern is repeating, it's likely that we will have several rounds of severe storms (to what magnitude, I'm not sure). But that could be a price we will have to pay to get rain. I think April will be a very active month around Kansas. The last few storm seasons have been especially active in April, with some of the bigger storms occurring east of Kansas in May and June. The science of meteorology doesn't allow us to accurately forecast a number of tornadoes, so only time will dictate that answer. But let's hope for some big rains between now and early summer. We are heading into our wettest time of the year. The three months of April, May, and June are usually more generous than the other months of the year with rain... now it just needs to happen.

Thanks to Brenda Casanova for sending me pictures of the Marion Reservoir. It's estimated the water levels are down 5 to 6 feet, which may not sound like much, but you can see from the pictures, we need rain!!